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Expect a 22% / 27% CAGR / Premium Bank Card during FY 21-23 eCommerce. Similar to SBICARD it can be increased by 27% / 32% CAGR.
We started not long ago with the protection of SBI Payment and Card Services (SBICARD), highlighting the history of structural development and the demanding game in the growing retail credit score introduced by the company. It has consolidated its position as it is the second largest card player in India, with a market share of around 19% in premium cards and ~ 20% in public spending. It has an impressive card base of around 11.5 million and has doubled its card base in the last three years with an average growing market share of 23%.This SBI card news has acquired lime light.
We estimate a compound annual growth rate for electronic mortgages / earnings of 27% / 47% during fiscal year 21-23e (return on assets / return on equity of 6.6% / 28.4% in fiscal year 23e). However, we started protection at a neutral level due to costly valuations and restricted upside of our profit taking of Rs 1,200. The stock has corrected nearly 11% since our inception and is buying and selling at 35 times dividends in fiscal 23e, which is attractive given its strong fundamentals, dividend development and long-term structural history. In CMP, the stock represents a rally of about 23% to Rs 1,200 TP unchanged (43x FY23e EPS). Therefore, we are working to update our score to "Buy". Our earnings estimates have not changed.
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Strong underlying profitability from absorption of credit rating rate; PCR to remain beneficial 72%
Underlying business performance remains strong, allowing for shock absorption from quality assets. Although the credit rating rate has increased by almost 9% during fiscal 2020, the return on assets / return on equity is strong here at 5.5% / 28%. Even in the 9 months of Fiscal Year 21, the credit rating rate remained high at 10.5%, but the rates of return were fair at 4.3% / 18.5%. While we expect delinquency to remain excessive, given the insecure nature of the e-book, which can keep the credit rating rate high, performance indices tend to stay healthy and improve steadily as the credit rating rate moderates. We expect NNPA to reach a reasonable 1.2% for fiscal 23e, while PCR will maintain ~ 72%.
The return on stock returns was approximately 28% in fiscal year 23e
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